Oscars BETTING: Best Film

It's an embarrassment of riches, if you ignore the Clooney one...

In the running: Atonement (5.1), Juno (11), Michael Clayton (24), No Country For Old Men (1.85), There Will Be Blood (4.1)

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The Nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood

Making a great film is all about presentation. Two people can have exactly the same story, but while one might dress it up to look all attractive and brilliant, the other can still end up making a sow's ear from a silk purse. We are of course referring to zany stories about aliens and spaceships, and attacking people with your ethics (thanks, Tom Cruise) - one such tale, "Scientology", was told by a science fiction author called L Ron Hubbard, and it was picked up and adored by Hollywood types like Travolta and Kirsty Alley. The other came spluttering from the mouth of sports presenter David Icke, and is now causing just a minor ripple in the muddled mind of young Robbie Williams, who appears so consistently high on espressos he probably thinks he's being stalked by a cloud.

We know which adaptation we'd be voting for on Oscar night. (that'd be neither).

So, which story shone amongst the poo this year? And what does it really take to win? Here's some facts:

» Eleven of the last thirty Best Pictures have featured none of the award winning actors for that year (Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress). Atonement - only represented in the Best Supporting Actress category by 13-year-old Saoirse Ronan - Michael Clayton - represented, but unlikely to win, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress - and Juno - Best Actress nominee - all look unlikely for any acting prizes.

» Only twice in the last ten years has the Best Actor starred in the Best Picture (Russell Crowe, Gladiator, 2000; Kevin Spacey, American Beauty, 1999). With Day-Lewis looking a shoo-in for the acting prize, it doesn't look good for There Will Be Blood.

» Four of the last twenty Best Pictures have featured the Best Actress (Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby, 2004; Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love, 1998; Jodie Foster, Silence of The Lambs, 1991; Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy, 1989). Of this year's nominees, only Juno could acheive the same feat, with Ellen Page nominated for Best Actress. In a similar vein to Little Miss Sunshine - i.e. a small 'indie' film surrounded by giants - it looks a very unlikely winner.

» Only once in the last thirty years has the director of the Best Picture not been nominated for a Best Director statuette (Bruce Beresford, Driving Miss Daisy, 1989). This year, second favourite Atonement was not directed by a nominated director.

» Just eight of the last thirty Best Actors have been the star of the Best Picture, which is good news for No Country For Old Men, which has no representative in the Best Actor category

» In eighty years of the Academy Awards, only eighteen films with a one word title have won Best Picture. Devestating news for Atonement and Juno.

» Only two films in Academy Award history have featured a full name as the title of the film - Annie Hall (1977) and Tom Jones (1963). Gandhi, Oliver!, and Amadeus were shortened names, and Ben-Hur was called Judah Ben-Hur by his bank manager. Hence Michael Clayton would be adding to a very very small list.