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Oscars BETTING: Shock Bafta wins for the girls!

What does this mean for the Oscars?

The Bafta winning actresses: Marion Cotillard (3.65), Tilda Swinton (15)

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There were one or two shocks at last night's Baftas. What the hell were Matt Willis and Myleen Klass doing there? And didn't Tilda Swinton just say "fuck" when she won for Best Supporting Actress? She wasn't the only one.

Literally no one saw that one coming.

Everything was supposed to go to plan: Day-Lewis, blah blah, Coen Brothers, blah-di-blah, Cate Blanchett, whistle whistle, Julie Christie, scratchy nose, honk honk, Atonement, nee-naw nee-naw, fire in Camden, splat, Javier Bardem.

But no. The Bafta people (whoever the Christ they are) decided to mix it up and start throwing awards at French people. Cotillard obviously hadn't planned a speech (or if she had, she shouldn't have, it was rubbish), because Christie was completely definitely certain for Best Actress. Only she wasn't, she didn't win - she will now head back to her caravan in Wales never to be seen again. And Cate Blanchett was a shoo-in for her Bob Dylan impression. Only AGAIN, she didn't win, the rank outsider, Tilda Swinton, did.

Hence, the Oscars have been thrown into disarray.

Five of the last six Best Supporting Actresses have won a Bafta AND the Oscar (Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls, last year; Cate Blanchett, The Aviator, 2005; Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain, 2004; Catherine Zeta Jones, Chicago, 2003; Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind). Which would suggest a Swinton victory.

However, only four of the leading Actresses have snared the Academy and the Bafta people in the last ten years (Helen Mirren, The Queen, last year; Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line, 2005; Nicole Kidman, The Hours, 2003; Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich, 2001). Hence the race is still on for Cotillard and Christie. It will be a tight one - Cotillard uglied up for the role, Christie plays a woman with a disability. The voters will be torn. 



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