American Idol BETTING: The Top ELEVEN

One down, then it's a TOP TEN... for a week

The IDOLS: David (2.16), Carly (6.2), Brooke (9.2), David (9.4), Michael (12.5), Jason (13), Ramiele (29), Chickezie (42), Syesha (55), Kristy (60), Amanda (65)

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Week One of American Idol proper was a massive wake-up call for the field leader, David Archuleta. His performance was wretched, he forgot the words, and his forced smile during the post-song judgement was obviously shielding a million tears. He will need to stop crying in time for round two. The competition has been thrown wide open. Or, in the words of Paula Abdul: "We can... erm... feel your... hearts... when you... give of yourself... the world..." OH SHUT UP, WOMAN!

But who will win?

David Archuleta
David made a pig's turd of week one of Beatles songs, singing something akin to Craig David doing Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds. It just didn't work, and now he's not such a shoo-in for the title.

Carly Smithson
Carly's Tina Turner version of Come Together damn near made Simon whimper - she looks a likely finalist. That said, the weird arm tattoo makes her look scary, and she has something of the pug-faced Bonnie Tyler about her.

David Cook
The dark horse of the competition, David is making his mark by morphing gentle pop songs into the angry rants of a maniac, and Simon loves it. Last year's runner-up, Blake Lewis, trod a similarly unusual route (he played the drums and scratched records with his voice box!), meaning Cook might grab the hipper votes. Alienated teens watching will think he's their God. An interesting bet.

Jason Castro
Jason is either constantly pretending to be stoned, or appearing on a children's programme out of his mind on drugs. It's hard to say which is worse. As things stand, he needs a massive performance.

Michael Johns
Australian Michael's problem is that while his blue-eyed soul voice is great, his song choices are so earnest and middle of the road, he might as well just sing your boring uncle's record collection - he is the only man not dreading Chris Rea week. He should do well, but it seems unlikely that American kids will see him as their idol. Foreigners don't win.

Brooke White
So earnest, she has now started insisting on ending each performance with wet eyes, whispering "thank you" repeatedly (probably to God). That said, she has been brilliant for three weeks in a row. One to keep a big judgemental eye on.

Ramiele Malubay
Heh heh, the little woman sings like a giant. It's still funny. When it isn't any more, she will go.

Syesha Mercado
Syesha has nothing to put her in the same bracket as former RnB winners Jordin Sparks (last year) or Fantasia Barrino (series three). On very shaky ground after a bottom three visit.

Amanda Overmyer
24-year-old Amanda sounds like the little girl from the Exorcist when she sings, and has a strange habit of marching backwards, looking over her shoulder like she's reversing a car. That said, she has a strong voice, and rock singers fare pretty well (Nikki McKibben, third, series one; Bo Bice, runner up, series four; Chris Daughtry, fourth, series five) - but, unfortunately, they DON'T WIN.

Chikezie Eze
Chikezie has already been down near the bottom, scraping through in place of uber-gay Danny Noriega, and he isn't a favourite to win. That said, he was brilliant in week one, and might yet surprise everyone.

Kristy Lee Cook
Her country version of Eight Days a Week was astonishingly bad. Even children - who notoriously like everything - will have be shaking their heads disapprovingly. She has absolutely no chance of winning.