Big Brother BETTING: Bex/Mario Eviction

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Finally, an eviction worth a close look, almost impossible to call. We haven't seen anything like this since Science the charismatic rapper was up against Orlaith the poster girl in Big Brother 6. For the record, Science went with 50.5% of the vote on that occasion. Both were controversial characters, difficult to like, much like Mario and Rebecca.

Initially it looked like Rebecca (Bex) had this one in the bag, after weeks of shrieking, squawking and sulking for no apparent reason. Her cruel treatment of the in-house fall guy, Mo - when she cut his belt in half and sneered in his face - seemed to cement her place as the fourth evictee. And yet, in recent days she has enjoyed something of a renaissance, the kind of which is only possible in the Big Brother house. Much of this is thanks to her highly watchable relationship with Luke, the main provider of much-needed in-house comedy - voters have learnt in recent years to keep the more interesting characters in the house until they can take no more. With both potential evictees in "a couple", the public would surely be more interested to see how the Bex/Luke one develops.

As the week has progressed, Mario has morphed from a Stallone-faced David Brent into a nasty control freak with a God complex. His increasing belief that he and Lisa are the axis of power in the house will have infuriated the voters, even the ironic ones who used to find his hilarious "fan base" talk absolutely thrilling. But, unfortunately for Mario, he has now been unmasked, and by talking down to his hunky girlfriend, berating her for being a "doormat", and laying into lovable little Kat, he will have enraged huge swathes of Big Brother fans. Cruel boyfriends will not be tolerated by the Channel 4 audience. His game plan of taking a blind man under his wing hasn't quite worked out either. Too transparent.

Hence, all the planets are aligning against Mario, and like fellow gentlemen in their 40s, Roberto (series six) and Ahmed (series five), he should be the fourth housemate for the chop. BUT WAIT! With "Get Bex out!" the chant du jour, the clever money might be better spent on the bosomy one. Never in Big Brother history has a housemate reversed the hex of the "get them out!" chant.

As for the coming weeks, expect to see Belinda unravel. Like all over eager middle-aged women, she has no place in the Big Brother house, and her desperate attempts to make people notice her are becoming increasingly disturbing – what the hell is that jazz singing about? Expect a Vanessa Feltz style meltdown should she not walk/face eviction in the next week or so. Also navigating a rocky path is Rex, slipping down the popularity polls thanks to his non-stop bragging, and voice so posh it makes Prince Harry sound like he’s from Mile End. And Stuart, who has morphed into the most paranoid bodybuilder alive – he’s either coming off steroids or he should never have considered a career in celebrity. Like Ziggy last year, he is far too straight-faced to win.

On the up-and-up this week, surprisingly, is Dale. Without Jennifer there to occupy his hormones, he has started to showcase some actual personality. Who saw that coming? He could be the dark horse.

This week, Popbet predicts: Bex to just about scrape the eviction majority, and Dale to win.